tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4139498400908952220.post8863987830399554353..comments2024-02-11T22:33:45.430-08:00Comments on Baker's Field: Five Rules of Monster Design, Iran, Riddle of the SandsRichard Bakerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10329182427795648081noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4139498400908952220.post-90281672421556394382012-03-14T15:03:44.304-07:002012-03-14T15:03:44.304-07:00Unknown: Wow. Your linked article covers EXACTLY w...Unknown: Wow. Your linked article covers EXACTLY what's in my mind on this topic. It seems Ron Rosenbaum and I are on the same page. Thanks for the link; I'm glad to see that I'm not the only one who's been thinking about the unthinkable.Richard Bakerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10329182427795648081noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4139498400908952220.post-15006173450667380042012-03-14T14:18:10.160-07:002012-03-14T14:18:10.160-07:00another very relevant article that sounds similar ...another very relevant article that sounds similar themes<br /><br />http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/the_spectator/2012/03/nuclear_war_in_iran_six_questions_to_consider_about_whether_and_how_it_might_happen_.html<br /><br />scary stuff...Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00302448262957195169noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4139498400908952220.post-60975742289881277962012-03-14T08:45:04.901-07:002012-03-14T08:45:04.901-07:00I saw a very cogent summary of the situation poste...I saw a very cogent summary of the situation posted yesterday in an opinion piece. Here's a link:<br /><br />http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/iran-rational-actor_633497.html<br /><br />Scrivner: I think you're right. And I think Iran's best play is to NOT retaliate by mining the Straits of Hormuz or unleashing a hurricane of terrorism. I think they'll bait Israel into attacking, while suckering the US with promises of returning to negotiations. And if Israel strikes without us and Iran does NOT do anything to provoke the US, it will be very, very difficult for Obama (or any US president) to join in. In fact, I'll bet that we'll hear calls from our own media/pundits to STOP Israel's "aggression" in that scenario.<br /><br />Here's what really scares me about that scenario: I think the Israelis may have reason to believe they have a justified first use of nuclear weapons. If there's no other way to stop Iran's program, would they use nuclear weapons? If they can't do it with conventional arms and the US is sitting on the sideline, they just might. Israel views an Iranian bomb as an existential threat, and they're going to be damned by the international community anyway. What have they got to lose?Richard Bakerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10329182427795648081noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4139498400908952220.post-87832076758471980332012-03-13T22:25:31.579-07:002012-03-13T22:25:31.579-07:00Iran has put themselves in a win-win scenario in t...Iran has put themselves in a win-win scenario in their eyes. I believe Iran is intentionally baiting Israel. Iran WANTS a war. They believe if they can bait Israel into attacking them, the Middle East will explode and they feel they will have moral justification in the eyes of much of the international community to finally see their dream of wiping Israel off the map realized. On the other hand, if no one does anything to stop them, they achieve nuclear status showing how they boldly defied the west. Plus they have nukes that they can surreptitiously hand off to some radical group to act as their proxy and sneak them into Israel.<br /><br />I hope I'm wrong and that its just a crazy conspiracy theory.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4139498400908952220.post-31041844920452517742012-03-13T08:48:57.607-07:002012-03-13T08:48:57.607-07:00I think you are probably right on Iran. I'm st...I think you are probably right on Iran. I'm still hoping for them see sense, back down, take the nice deals on the table. But it certainly doesn't appear likely at this point. <br /><br />The questions I think about are: <br /><br />- What form will the conflict take? Is this a targeted strike to take out Iran's nuclear infrastructure? If so, how intensive, widespread and prolonged should the effort be? <br /><br />- And realistically what can be achieved: how long and by how much can we expect Iran to be set back?<br /><br />- And if it's a surgical strike, SHOULD the US get in, or just give Israel the wink and let them take the heat? What are the pros and cons?<br /><br />- Or does a strike just prolong things, and maybe not by too much? Is a full-bore regime change war (presumably *much* more destructive, costly and intense than Iraq) an option? I'm not sure anyone has the political will for it, even if it were the right thing. But if we set Iran's program back by, say, 2 years but also further radicalize and unify them against us, where are we then...?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00302448262957195169noreply@blogger.com